Tesla Bot Optimus Price vs Value – What You’ll Pay and What You’ll Get : Chris
by: Chris
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“The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed.” — William Gibson
I’ve written two articles attempting to value Tesla’s humanoid bot, “Optimus“. It is not a mere vision anymore but real bots are built doing real work.
- Tesla Bot Optimus: Is $5,000 per Share (TSLA) Realistic?
- Tesla Bot Valuation: $15,625 per Share Possible?
But to conduct a realistic valuation, we first need to know the bot’s price point – and value it provides.
What Will Tesla Optimus Cost?
The Tesla bot demand significantly depends on its pricing, so this question is highly relevant:
Here are some first-principles considerations:
- If the Tesla bot would cost $1,000 and it could do all the manual tasks we humans can do, possibly more, most of us would buy one. The TAM would go into the billions and billions of bots sold.
- If the Tesla bot would cost $100,000 but could do nothing except walk around and film the environment, the TAM would be dramatically smaller. It would be bought by a few rich people to enhance the security of their mansions by some YouTubers to capture great imagery and video footing.
- If the Tesla bot would cost $100,000 but could do everything humans do and more, the TAM would still be hundreds of millions of sold units annually because companies now pay that amount for annual human labor and the bot would be a one-time purchase. The ROI would be insane.
First, we’ll establish a trivial price point between $1,000 and $100,000 per bot. This fits Elon Musk’s announcement that the Tesla bot price would be around $20,000 per unit.
You’ll find Elon’s bot price announcement in this older video (~minute 2:22):
Elon Musk: “Optimus is designed to be an extremely capable robot, made in very high volume – probably millions of units – and it is expected to cost much less than a car. So, I would say probably less than $20,000.”
Next, I’ll give a list of price point predictions from various industry experts and Tesla investors:
- $20,000 per Optimus bot selling millions of units at an unspecified future date (Elon Musk)
- $25,000 per Optimus bot at 20 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Farzad)
- $60,000 per Optimus bot at a 0.55 million annual unit sales (Scheiwiller)
- $65,000 per Optimus bot at 7.7 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Invest Answers)
- $100,000 per Optimus bot at 100 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Warren Redlich)
- $234,000 per Optimus bot at 1.4 million annual unit sales in 2030 (Rebellionaire)
You may be wondering why many assume a higher sales price than the officially-announced $20,000 per bot by Elon. The reason is simply that the humanoid bot already has a utility value of tens of thousands of USD per year.
Let’s have a look at its utility: 
What Will Tesla Bot Be Able to Do?
… as a factory worker: 
(100 million to 1 billion deployed units)
Tesla’s Optimus robot outshines human workers in various aspects: it operates tirelessly 24/7 without fatigue, eliminates human error, ensures consistent precision in tasks, reduces workplace injuries by taking over hazardous jobs, and adapts to diverse roles in manufacturing with its advanced AI and machine learning capabilities.
Its deployment leads to significant cost savings in the long term, improves overall efficiency, and offers scalability in production unlike human labor.
Additionally, Optimus can work in extreme conditions unsuitable for humans, such as high-temperature environments or areas requiring extreme precision, thereby expanding the operational capabilities of businesses.
Tesla’s Optimus robot also presents advantages in terms of management and overhead costs compared to human workers.
It does not require benefits like health insurance, social security, or pensions, and is immune to issues like dissatisfaction with working conditions, workplace disputes, or the need for breaks and vacations.
Furthermore, Optimus is not subject to the complexities of labor union negotiations or demands for salary increases, and it lacks the capacity for complaints or grievances, streamlining workforce management and reducing administrative and HR-related costs.
This makes Optimus a straightforward, cost-effective solution for tasks where such human-related factors are a consideration. Hundreds of millions of workers worldwide could be cost-effectively replaced by a humanoid Tesla bot today or in the very near future without assuming any further breakthrough in AI.
… as a private gadget like a smartphone: 
(1 billion to 10 billion deployed units)
Tesla’s Optimus could also emerge as a personal device, just like your smartphone. It’s there to handle all your household chores tirelessly, around the clock.
Optimus learns your preferences and adapts to your needs, doing everything from tidying up to complex tasks.
Tesla’s Optimus could significantly add value by performing tasks such as cleaning and organizing your home, cooking meals, doing laundry, and gardening.
It could also assist with personal care for the elderly or those with disabilities, handle shopping and errands, provide home security, manage smart home devices, and even offer educational support like tutoring for children.
Its presence could effectively reduce the time and effort you spend on routine chores, allowing you more freedom to focus on what you enjoy.
It’s like having a multi-functional helper at home, reducing your need for various gadgets.
Plus, it seamlessly connects with your smart home and personal devices, making your life more convenient and efficient. Think of it as an indispensable part of your daily routine, enhancing your living experience significantly.
December 29, 2023 at 09:26PM
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